Hygiene Scheduling in Q4: Data Revelations on the ‘Big Dip’

Spear has become one of the industry leaders in dental business analytics due largely to the fact that our Practice Solutions team receives data from hundreds of dental practices with thousands of users who represent hundreds of thousands of patients.

That level of data supports the facts stated in this article, which emphasizes the need for us all to understand practice scheduling for October through December – as we conclude one of the most financially challenging years our industry has ever faced.

In a previous Spear Digest article, I echoed Spear's collective call for all dental offices to lean into patient messaging on “3 Keys to Optimal Oral Health:”

• Key 1: Keep patients safe with the proper safety measures, such as PPE and sterilization.
• Key 2: Help patients avoid pain and complications.
• Key 3: Minimize patients' time in the office and maximize their oral health.

We will focus here on comparing the volume of patients before COVID-19 to today's patient flow. As we focus on Q4 and continue to gauge the state of the dental industry, it's important to acknowledge how our amazing profession went from facing a complete shutdown to what will be known as one of the greatest comeback stories in our profession's history.

As practice leaders, we need to thank our patients and teams for their part in this comeback. We also need to ensure that we focus on the future. It is a leader's job to “be the future,” as author John Maxwell would say. What he means is that we need to anticipate what is coming and do our best to lay out a plan that helps us to operate in that future.

Today, the focus is the schedule and how our practices have performed since the spring in solving what some are calling the anticipated “Big Dip” or, simply, “a major slowdown in October through December.” This is where we get to lean on Practice Solutions data to tell us how the industry is performing in real time.

Dental industry data on Q4 hygiene scheduling

Where we were six weeks ago (Aug. 5):

According to Practice Solutions data, 80% of our clients' offices were scheduled at an average of 15% what they normally are in September through November.

On average, there was an eight-week period of slowdown for months September through November. This was universal across the entire U.S.

Where we are today (Sept. 17):
What we see today is that our client practices are now more focused on solving the scheduling issues based on three headwinds:

• The economy had deteriorated more over time.
• COVID-19 has been better managed by authorities and the health care industry, though many Americans are still hesitant about visiting a doctor or dentist.
• The U.S. presidential election can cause general economic uncertainty.

As our clients continued to employ new and different techniques to address the three headwinds, the results began to vary by region. Here are the results by region:

Midwest region data

To summarize (Sept. 13 through end of the year):

• Pre-pandemic: An average of 6,026 hygiene patients were seen weekly over an eight-week span.
• Current: September to Dec. 1 indicates a 4,807-hygiene patient average over a 12-week span.

Takeaways:

The weekly patient average is now 80% of the volume it was pre-pandemic. Remember this was 15% when we measured in the first week of August. This represents great progress, but we need to solve the last 15-20%.

This will protect offices from a dip in the fall. Again, this will take different thinking. If you are doing the same things you did to get patients in as you did in 2019, you may find it difficult to impact this number.

Northeast region data

To summarize (Sept. 13 through end of the year):

• Pre-pandemic: An average of 3,878 hygiene patients were seen weekly over an eight-week span.
• Current: September to Dec. 1 indicates a 3,142-hygiene patient average over a 12-week span.
• The weekly patient average is now 81% of the volume it was pre-pandemic.

South region data

To summarize (Sept. 13 through end of the year):

• Pre-pandemic: An average of 7,524 hygiene patients were seen weekly over an eight-week span.
• Current: September to Dec. 1 indicates a 5,866-hygiene patient average over a 12-week span.
• The weekly patient average is now 78% of the volume it was pre-pandemic.

West region data

Once again, to summarize (Sept. 13 through end of the year):

• Pre-pandemic: An average of 7,524 hygiene patients were seen weekly over an eight-week span.
• Current: September to Dec. 1 indicates a 5,866-hygiene patient average over a 12-week span.
• The weekly patient average is now 76% of the volume it was pre-pandemic.

Conclusion

Dentistry has come a long way since the COVID-19 shutdowns in March. The fact most offices had closed between March and June is what created a problem six months later.

Since there were few patients in the spring months, we had hypothesized a big slowdown for the fall, which proved true.

The data show that the dental profession has come a long way from the 15% average scheduled we saw weeks ago to the 78.75% that we are seeing now. We need to continue to build value for patient appointments so we keep our schedules as healthy as this trend indicates.

The cancellation rate is currently 1.96 times the rate it was pre-pandemic and is increasing week-over-week. The areas with the highest cancellation rate change are the Midwest (2.2 times the pre-pandemic cancellation rate) and South (2.18 times), respectively.  

The first step to continue to see success is to control your narrative with your patients via any communications like social media and your practice website. The second step is to make sure you offer alternatives to coming into the office (such as virtual consults and teledentistry), as well as making sure your financial arrangements allow for patients to feel they can afford your recommended treatment.

We at Spear are pleased to see the level of progress the profession has made in getting back to a fully normal state. The focus now is a strong fourth quarter for all offices, which should course correct the flow of patients in the future.

As dental practice owners and clinicians continue to lead their teams effectively, we are confident we will see a very successful end of year.

Mitchell Ellingson, D.D.S., is a member of Spear Resident Faculty and Executive Vice President of Practice Growth for Spear Practice Solutions.